Sestry | Кіра Рудик: «Наступного року підтримку для України доведеться буквально виборювати» (2024)

I lie on a couch in a small kitchen somewhere in Warsaw, enjoying the aromas - onions, beetroots, carrots and tomatoes are quietly simmering in the pan. Such is the smell of the prospect of being fed borsch.

My friend is cozily bustling by the stove while I exhale my fatigue after an early flight from Paris. It is still 5 hours until my train to Kyiv, and I stopped by with a bottle of wine and a bag of sweets (there are also two little fans of Haribo gummy bears in this house). In return, I received coffee with treats, plenty of conversation and an unexpected homely feeling of comfort you only find at your mom’s or your other closest ones’ places, where you can visit without any formalities and shamelessly sprawl on the couch while lunch is being prepared.

Why have I not taken advantage of this great offer before? - I think to myself. After all, I fly often, and the opportunity to visit someone I know for coffee in a foreign city is a big help. However, this also concerns unfamiliar people.

I remember writing a Facebook post once asking if anyone was willing to let me in to take a shower at their place in Warsaw. I then received dozens of warm invitations, mostly from Ukrainian women I did not know. Well, now I actually do have a place to drink coffee and shower in almost every Polish or European city.

This is also a mark of our new reality: there are many Ukrainian women scattered around the world as of late, and the majority (at least, those whom I know personally) yearn for the opportunity to see each other, talk face to face and envelop their kin in their kindness.

My thoughts are interrupted by a joyful girl hopping into the kitchen on one foot. She is wearing a cast on her second leg, though she does not seem bothered by this problem at all. «Mom, you promised us lody (ice cream in Polish)!» Over two years of this family's life in Poland is evident in the way this girl and her brother communicate in a tender mix of Ukrainian and Polish words.

«Yes-yes, we’re going now», - my friend agrees, and like a multi-armed Indian goddess, she manages to simultaneously tend to her borsch, prepare the temporarily rented stroller, help her daughter get dressed for the walk - all with such ease that I’m candidly amazed by her.

- It’s the antidepressants, - she laughs. - You know, things have brightened up lately. I even realised I don’t yell at the kids anymore. At all! Can you imagine?

And so, I will spend a couple more hours in this house, observing this family’s life. Of course, my observations will be shallow and incomplete, the tip of the iceberg, so to speak, and even so I will still be able to experience many things.

«You know, I rarely even allow myself to have a glass of wine over here, - my friend says, placing the wine bottle I brought on the top shelf. - Just the other day, we had this broken leg from a bicycle accident… Ugh, what a nightmare it was. And I realised once again that I can't afford to relax even for a moment. Injuries and things like that always happen unexpectedly.»

How can I afford a moment of weakness or an unclear conscience if I am the only one responsible for the children here? I am the only adult here, you understand?

I’m not sure if I do understand, as I have never been in her place. And even though there were times in my life when my husband was on the frontlines, and I would end up being the only adult taking care of our son, my closest relatives and friends would still be beside me - what’s there to say - when you are home, even the walls seem to help.

While I can only wonder about what the displaced people have been through. The possibility of such an experience has always terrified me more than any attacks on Kyiv. But I would never ask my friend if she would consider going back to Ukraine while the war is still going on. I have never been in her shoes, I do not know all the circ*mstances. I do not bring up such subjects while talking to my friends who have fled abroad. Still, though, they always start discussing it first.

«I feel like I’m suspended between worlds, - my friend tells me. - I don’t want to put down roots in Poland, to build my life here. I want to go home more than anything. But...» Yes, there are plenty of these bitter «buts» in her life. This woman is divorced and is raising her children mostly on her own, she does not have a place to live in Kyiv, and the money for rent is scarce, as it is hard to find a job back home with her specific profession. And she has found a job here, in Poland. Not the one she’s dreamed of but she gets paid. And the kids have been going to school for two years already, learning the language and finding friends.

My friend’s son, who’s been diagnosed with Asperger’s syndrome, was fortunate with his school - he fits in well, which is very important. Her daughter enjoys going to various clubs, which are free here. And most importantly - the war in Ukraine is not over yet.

- However I constantly feel as if I’m doing the splits between two realities

«And the feeling of this perpetuating impermanence, and simultaneously of persistent root spreading in a country where I don’t plan to live simply destroys me. - she confesses, pouring odorous borch on my plate. - Even though I want to come home badly, I cannot bring myself to start the process of returning just yet».

Changed identities

Suddenly, I’m overtaken by a déjà vu, as I recently had the same conversation, and I was being fed the same delicious borsch in Vilnius. However, my friend's situation there is even more acute: she is a single mother of many children, and their home in eastern Ukraine is in a war zone. There is no way to return right now, and will there ever be any?

It’s difficult for her to keep her head above water in another country: her family does not receive any special support from Lithuania, and she’s paying for rent herself, which basically completely consumes her modest salary and her first-year student daughter’s scholarship. Her younger children study in school, catching up to their local classmates in performance, and her youngest daughter has adapted to the kindergarten’s environment so well that you can hardly tell which language is her first - Lithuanian or Ukrainian…

This friend of mine, a mother of five, has acquired a completely new profession abroad as a trolley bus driver. This responsibility terrified her at first, she even lost 10 kilograms during her first months on the job, but she has gotten around to it.

«What I’m grateful for, among other things, is that Lithuanians give forced migrants the opportunity to study for free. Yes, I have to pay back the money invested in me during my first 6 months on the job but I find it fair. I’m considering learning to become a bus driver as well. Not every Ukrainian city has trolley buses…»

This painful topic hangs between us.

My friend keeps on stubbornly planning her future in Ukraine, but right now, all her unanswered questions seem too resemblant to open wounds

Will their house in the Donetsk region still be around if their town is under constant fire right now? And if not, which Ukrainian city is ready to take in such a large family? How are they supposed to rebuild their life there once the war ends? And most importantly, - when will it end?!

As there is also the following problem: my friend and at least one of her sons have a strong reaction to shellings, having lived through the first difficult years of the war in their town. Unlike many Ukrainians, they have not adapted and have not learned to deal with their fear.

There are too many painful questions and too few hints on their possible answers. But my friend is so wistful of her home and talks about it so much… And not just home as a place to live - home in a much broader sense.

«I’m so worried for our nation’s future, - she says to me with an apparent aching. - Our greatest men die on the battlefield, meanwhile so many women have gone abroad with their children».

I listen and look at her with wonder because when I first met this woman, the questions regarding the Ukrainian nation’s fate seemed quite foreign to her, and the Ukrainian language and culture were exotic. Now everything’s changed. War, upheaval and new existential experiences are reshaping our identities, and each of us has our own path and pace. Some people, for instance, only realise their own Ukrainian identity when they lose the ability to live in Ukraine.

There are no easy choices left for us anymore

I have the privilege of staying home in the time of war. Of course, this is a conscious for my family and simultaneously a responsibility for all the possible consequences but it also is a combination of certain favorable factors. Unlike many of my fellow Ukrainians, my house is intact and I live in Kyiv, the most protected city in Ukraine at this moment, and luckily I have not lost the ability to make a living under the circ*mstances of the war. And there’s also a lot going on behind the scenes.

Undoubtedly, one can talk at length about the various drawbacks of this decision, but my friends and I, who have found ourselves on the other side of the experience, tread carefully on this thin ice. And yet, I am always amazed at how all of them - those who went to Poland, Lithuania, Germany, France, USA and so on, and have not made the decision to stay there - every time we meet, they start explaining and justifying themselves to me, as if the fact that I stayed in Ukraine gives me the right to judge them.

Hey, what are you doing?! No, there are no easy choices left for us anymore. Yes, it will always be a complex mix of entirely polar feelings.

And I listen to you, my dear friends, very carefully about all your tough calls and hard times and ask myself - could I have done the same?

And I cheer for you when I hear about your children’s or your own success in an unfamiliar foreign-speaking environment. I breathe a sigh of relief when such terrible trials as suddenly discovered oncology or other insidious diagnoses are treated for free and with quality in those developed countries where you have ended up. I am not annoyed by your everyday small joys that you are too shy to openly share on social media.

Moreover, frankly, I am proud of you - all these volunteer initiatives, the incredible projects you are driving in your new locations, all this great collective work for Ukraine, its military, image, culture and so on, all of this is very, very important. The Ukrainian diaspora is our superpower, I always say that.

But I won't lie, I often feel bitterness and resentment that the damn war has scattered all of you to distant lands, that prolonged stays in other worlds inevitably affect changes in your mentality and perspective. And it hurts me, God, it hurts me so much, too, that the flower of our nation has been so cut down on various levels.

However, I want to keep believing in our power and unity, I want us to stop bickering among ourselves and learn to listen to each other in this not-so-black-and-white reality. I want to feel that circ*mstances and distances can not take my close ones away from me. And that someday I will feel more or less at home anywhere, where I will be fed with sincere Ukrainian borsch.

…Having thanked my host for the hospitality, I’m leaving Warsaw once again to catch one of my many trains to Kyiv. I often travel this way and already have a collection of usual observations. These trains, connecting Ukraine and Poland, are always full of our women and children who are carrying heavy luggage, learning various languages (oh, the everpresent sound of Duolingo!), who have special documents confirming the legitimacy of their stay abroad, generously share the conditions of their new lives, complain or praise themselves, who are sad or laughing, explaining themselves or defending their decisions quite aggressively, even when no one challenged them. There is so much poignancy in all of this.

On the road, I observe the cheerful little daughter of another passenger for a while. She must be two or three years old, she’s active and constantly chattering about everything under the sun. However, I find it hard to understand her. «She speaks German better than Ukrainian now», - her mother says, embarrassed and almost apologetic to everyone. Well, that happens. Especially during the endless balancing between different worlds.

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Lyuba Shipovich had been living in the United States since 2008, but after the beginning of the full-scale war, she returned to Ukraine. Lyuba is a co-founder of the «Razom for Ukraine» public organisation, and since 2023, the founder of the «Dignitas» charitable foundation, which takes care of military and veteran projects, including providing the army with UAVs and training drone operators. Last year, Shipovich was listed in the TOP 50 Ukrainian female leaders according to Forbes magazine.

Nataliia Zhukovska: Lyuba, the main area of your work is unmanned technologies: surveillance and combat drones. What is the real situation with military units being provided with UAVs today?

Lyuba Shipovich: It is about technology in general. Apart from unmanned vehicles, there is also software, situation awareness, combat control systems etc. As for the drone supply, the state is now buying them. Yes, not yet in a sufficient amount but they started doing it. However, we still lack the infrastructure for these drones. I am talking about antennas, ground control stations, portable power stations, tablets, 3D printers for explosive components of air-dropping systems. Unfortunately, this whole infrastructure is not funded by the state at all at the moment. The funding comes either from foundations or the units raise the money for this themselves.

The drone does not fly by itself. There also have to be glasses, RCs, antennas, charging devices, tablets, retranslators

What has to be done to ensure there are enough drones on the frontlines?

If we compare 2022, when there were no drones at all, to the situation now, it is significantly better. According to the prime minister, 40 billion hryvnias have been dedicated to purchasing unmanned systems this year. This already is an improvement. But it is not enough. When the President is talking about a million drones, it sounds like a lot. In reality, however, we calculated that such an amount would only be sufficient for three months in today’s frontline and combat intensity. Therefore, a million - is, in essence, a fourth part of the yearly demand.

We are engaged in an intense war, the largest drone war in the world in the history of humanity. Moreover, due to the frequent lack of ammunition, drones often replace artillery. Western countries were not prepared for a large-scale land war. NATO's doctrine is to gain air superiority. However, we are conducting a large-scale land war. Even the combined NATO countries cannot supply it with enough ammunition. On one hand, they lack the capacity, on the other hand, political and bureaucratic processes are an obstacle. We cannot rely solely on the help of our Western allies.

We must invest in our own production. And what we are doing quite well is primarily the production of unmanned technologies

It is known that Ukraine still depends on China for some components necessary for drone production. And last year, the Chinese already imposed certain export restrictions. How do you assess the risk that at some point they might completely «tighten the screws»?

We need to look for alternatives. China is the cheapest and largest manufacturer, but fortunately, not a monopolist. There are other manufacturers in Central Asian countries. Factories are also being built in Europe and the USA. And, of course, we need to pay enormous attention to localising the production of components. We should produce in Ukraine everything that can be produced here, even if it is more expensive. Because during the war, the cost is not evaluated purely based on the economic factor. There is also the factor of national security. Currently, there are several hundred stable productions in Ukraine. However, very few of them scale up production capacities because they do not have guarantees that orders will be consistent.

The state should enter into medium- to long-term contracts with manufacturers for procurement. If the contract is at least three years, it will be of interest to the manufacturer to invest in their business

This is probably the biggest problem. And if we talk about manufacturers in European countries, they generally want 8- to 10-year contracts. After all, these are capital investments in production lines, expansion of facilities, and so on.

Lyuba, you have been involved in volunteer work since 2014. It was then that the charitable foundation «Razom for Ukraine» was established in the United States. You are one of its co-founders. Since February 24, over the course of a year, you have managed to raise 68 million dollars. How did you achieve that?

Over 60 per cent of the funds came from small donations from people, mostly Americans and Canadians. They contributed 10, 20, 100 dollars to help the Ukrainian army. There were also corporate donations. Up to ten corporations donated 1 million dollars each. These were quite well-known companies worldwide that often wished to remain anonymous. I attribute this level of activity among foreigners to the fact that, at that time, Ukraine was at the top of all the news. It was a natural impulse to help in the fight against injustice.

It is also important to understand the American culture, where volunteerism is instilled from a young age. It is an integral part of life. There are even special days of the year, such as Giving Tuesday, that unite people to help each other. Currently, this support has decreased significantly, partly because Ukraine has disappeared from the news. Last December, I travelled to the United States, where Americans asked me, «Is there still a war going on?» If it is not shown in the news, it seems like it is over. But it is the same as Ukrainians not knowing what is happening in other countries. For example, in December, an important news story was about Venezuela. But if you ask Ukrainians what happened there, many would say, «Where is that?» When something is not in the news, it feels like it does not exist.

Last year, the team that worked on military and veteran projects within «Razom for Ukraine» separated into a new foundation called Dignitas. Why did this happen?

Out of the 68 million dollars that we managed to raise during the first year of the full-scale war, 45 million went to support the military. Specifically, this included the purchase of tactical medicine, drones, radios, power stations and so on. Meanwhile, the organisation also had humanitarian programs. Towards the end of 2022, discussions began about reducing military aid and redirecting more funds towards support and rebuilding efforts. At that time, I was the only board member based in Ukraine - all others were in the United States.

I tried to convey to people that it was still too early to focus on rebuilding Ukraine and that investment in defence was necessary. Because if we do not destroy the Russian tank, it will continue to wipe our cities off the map. Consequently, the rebuilding would become a never-ending process

It was at this stage that certain differences began to emerge. It became increasingly difficult to advocate that the funds were needed specifically for the military. After consulting with my team, we decided to separate into a new foundation, where it is clearly stated in the charter that we are a foundation for technological assistance to the security and defence forces, as well as veterans. We started again with zero dollars in our account.

Who forms the «core» of your team?

All those who had worked with us on military and veteran projects since 2014. The largest initiative, «Victory Drones», is led by Mariya Berlinska. It is an ecosystem for training the military in technology, specifically drone operators for the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), the State Emergency Service of Ukraine (SES), and medical services in cooperation with the General Staff. There is also the «Fierce Birds» project, which supplies strike drones to the front line. It is led by Katya Nesterenko, who had worked for many years in the «Isolation» project and is very knowledgeable and understanding of the Donetsk region.

There is a project called «A Thousand Drones», which primarily focuses on reconnaissance drones. For example, in the United States, we are not allowed to raise funds for strike drones. Therefore, we have split the fundraising efforts: we collect funds for strike drones in Ukraine and for reconnaissance drones abroad.

There is also the «Fly» project, within which military personnel in rehabilitation departments are taught to operate FPV drones. This project is led by Dana Yurovich, who had previously worked for many years with the Ministry of Health team under Ulana Suprun (acting Minister of Health of Ukraine from 2016 to 2019) and on various international projects. In the tenth year of the war, volunteering needs to be professional. Yes, there were periods when everyone was doing everything when tourniquets and drones were bought indiscriminately and without understanding. But in reality, such an approach is an inefficient use of financial resources, which are already quite limited. Everyone should focus on their area of expertise.

For example, everyone knows that they need to buy a Mavic drone. However, not all understand that there is a whole line of them with different characteristics and firmware. As a result, people spend money on the Mavic 3 Classic, which is often unsuitable for use on the frontlines. But if a little more money were added, another drone could be purchased that would definitely be useful. There have even been cases where drones were bought and handed over to the military without being reprogrammed, and without anonymised firmware, they revealed positions. So, sometimes it is not just wasteful, it can be harmful to the military. That is why we do not get involved in other areas. Our focus is on technology.

For a long time, you were involved in advocating for weapons for Ukraine. What was the most challenging part, and did Western politicians always listen to you?

I continue to do this work even now. Our American team regularly communicates with congressmen and attends meetings. This work does not stop. In 2022, it was challenging to convince American politicians that Ukraine would hold out. If you recall that period, what kind of weapons was Ukraine being given? It was Javelins and Stingers - not for waging war, but for guerrilla warfare. Only in May 2022, when it became clear that Ukraine was indeed ready to fight, did they start providing heavier weapons for conventional military operations. So, until the middle of 2022, it was a matter of simply convincing them that we could and would endure, that we did not need to surrender Ukraine along the Dnipro or agree to any peace deals.

We have shown that we are ready to fight. The Western politicians and voters believed in us

What do we need to do to prevent the weakening of support from Europe and the United States?

It seems to me that Ukraine has disappeared from the news in the United States. We are not acting proactively. Look at Russia, which has been developing a network of television channels around the world for over 20 years. They broadcast in different languages - Arabic, Spanish, English, French, German, and others - meaning they generate their own content. In addition, they have a whole series of entertainment programs. They attract viewers' attention with these, and then they broadcast news between them. And what kind of news do the Russians broadcast about Ukraine? The ones that benefit them.

Where does the Western consumer get information about Ukraine? Either from the infrequent news in Western media or from Russian TV channels. We need to pay more attention to the information space and understand that foreign consumers consume information in their own language. Not Ukrainian and not always English. There is a huge Spanish-speaking world that we do not pay attention to, and the Arab world, where we also have very little information. And to gain support in those countries from politicians, we first need to gain it from their voters.

Why are there political bargaining and debates in America right now? Ukraine is a bargaining chip because voters do not have a clear opinion about us. If all voters wanted to support Ukraine, it could be guaranteed that politicians would do the same. Because they listen to their voters, especially in America, where congressional elections are held every two years. It is a relatively short election cycle, so voters are listened to constantly. Moreover, our politicians often use Western media to fight among themselves. And it is important to understand that this does not benefit us either.

When Western consumers see our internal political games, they think the war is over because local politicians are competing with each other

The major goal of the state is Ukraine's accession to NATO. This would be the greatest security guarantee for the country. Do you believe in NATO, where everyone defends each other?

I have spoken with Poles on this topic quite a bit. They are confident that they will be the next target of the Russian Federation. But when you ask them if they would go to defend their country, the response is: «Why would we? We are in NATO, the Americans will come to protect us». That is the classic answer. They do not understand that the primary responsibility is to defend their own country. And this collective NATO agreement is not about sitting back while someone else comes to fight for you. It means that we all defend each other together.

In my opinion, Russia will not go into Poland next, but into the Baltic countries. And I think that Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians understand this very well. They also understand that they must rely on their own forces. That is why they are actively preparing

For instance, they are conducting training for the population. When we talk about NATO countries, we think of a strong, powerful army. However, the Alliance does not have experience in conducting land wars. Right now, many of our military personnel are undergoing training abroad, and even NATO generals admit that they can learn more from Ukrainians than vice versa. Because currently, there is only one country in the world that can resist Russia - and that is Ukraine. Only we have the experience of resisting such a powerful aggressor. So if NATO sees Russia as an enemy, they are definitely interested in having Ukraine as, if not a member, at least a strong ally.

Photos from a private archive

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One of the most famous American generals, who has been acting as Senior Advisor of the American organisation Human Rights First since 2022, has diagnosed the situation of the West, Russia and Ukraine in the context of the war that has been going on for over two and a half years now in a Times Radio interview during a recent NATO summit.

What Russians are capable of

Hodges believes Russia has little space left for manoeuvring, as it can no longer lead Ukraine out of the war. Russian commanders and politicians with Putin as their leader, not caring about their soldiers, will continue sentencing thousands of others to death and disabilities day by day.

«Although, I do not think this will last infinitely, - the officer assesses. - Their human resources are limited. Even if we do not take the sanctions and their ability to transport oil seriously, I do not know if they will manage to hold on for two more years - also due to the lack of human resources and necessary components».

In the general’s opinion, the West will play a crucial role in accelerating Russia’s collapse if it takes the economic tools that have long been at its disposal seriously

At the moment, Russia is «doing what it can, waiting for us to let go of it and hoping that the potential Trump administration will make life easier for it». And this is approximately everything it can afford right now.

‍Putin: calculations of a bad man

In Hodges's eyes, Putin is a highly intellectual person, though simultaneously evil, merciless and such that does not care for anything but keeping power. His hopes for Trump’s possible victory are well-known: he is hoping that the USA will stop supporting Ukraine and force it to sign a peace treaty on Russian terms. On the other hand, if Biden wins [read as: the Democratic party candidate, as the interview has been taken before the President of the USA withdrew from the presidential race - Edit.], Putin will act by the already familiar plan: continued acts of diversion in Western countries and intensified disinformation that is expected to undermine the trust of the free countries’ citizens in their leaders and democratic institutions.

Biden’s policy: «catching arrows»

Hodges admires Biden’s recent promises to send more anti-aircraft equipment to Ukraine: this is significant support that measures up to the real needs of Ukrainians defending themselves. But this only solves a part of the problem. «Killing the archer is much more effective than catching all the arrows he is shooting, - the general points out. - This support package helps catch more arrows but it does not in any way help kill the archer».

From the officer’s words, the Biden administration continues to impose a «terrible policy», according to which Ukraine can not attack Russian bases in Russia using, for example, the American ATACMS systems. In practice, this policy gives Russia protection for it to commit attacks on Ukrainian cities. Yes, the general is glad to see more «Patriots» and ATGMs but it still is not enough. «I do not know what has to happen for the White House to address supporting Ukraine in defeating Russia seriously. Putin sees that we are not doing everything that is needed. He still has a big buyer of his gas, India, therefore until we start seriously helping Ukraine defeat Russia, Russians will keep on bombing Ukraine», - he warns.

Excessive fear and virtual guarantees

Hodges would like to believe that, as allies and President Zelenskyy himself say, Ukraine’s path into NATO is truly irreversible. «The issue is that there is no movement on this path», - he says. Many politicians at the summit in Switzerland contemplated what they could do about it but nothing in this chatter seems to lead to imminent and irreversible decisions. Whose opinion is that? The USA’s and Germany’s, that continue to obstruct this question, being guided by excessive fear of Russia using nuclear weapons. «Until this excessive fear is conquered, nothing will change for the better», - the general says.

- What guarantees can NATO give Ukraine and how can it strike Russia diplomatically if it can not offer Ukrainians membership right now?

Although Hodges does not imply it directly, it can be understood from his words that in this situation - there are none. As there is no 100 per cent confidence that Ukraine will join NATO. Considering that the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 [in which the USA, Great Britain and Russia guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in exchange for it becoming a non-nuclear-weapon state - Edit.] turned out to be an empty obligation - Hodges is not sure that the next similar commitments will be more trustworthy.

If the West fails again

The general puts all his hope into the understanding of many countries that Ukraine can not lose, that it has to win because its defeat would be a catastrophe for the whole Europe and therefore for the world as well. Because if it were to happen, the following millions of Ukrainian refugees would end up in Poland and Germany, and tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers would be forcefully enlisted in the Russian army, increasing its potential.

If the USA fails - be it because of a new party in power (Trump’s party) or any other reason, fails because of not having done what is needed, - the threat to Europe would not diminish but increase

In any case, it would not be surprising if the USA and more - the so-called collective West, do not live up to the expectations. In the last decade, both failed many times. «In 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, we did nothing. The same way, when Russians crossed the lines drawn by President Obama in Syria and when they invaded Ukraine in 2014», - Hodges points out. It is not unnatural that in 2021 preparing the invasion, and in 2022 performing it, Putin assumed that the West’s anger would not amount to anything once again.

‍Reanimate the deterrence

‍The American also lists some other shocking signs of the West’s weakness that convinced Putin he was right: the Trumpist attack on Capitol Hill on January 6th 2021, the chaotic extraction of American troops from Afghanistan, Germany’s inability to stop the construction of «Nord Stream-2» despite the Russian annexation of Crimea and a significant portion of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, President Macron’s statements about the «NATO’s brain death».

«You can imagine that amid all this the Kremlin thought: «Let’s finish this», - Hodges comments.

The war in Ukraine broke out because the deterrence failed. Therefore, it should be renewed because the world is an interconnected system. The USA’s economic flourishing, the USA President’s advisor on human rights points out, depends on the flourishing of Europe, and it is impossible if the Old Continent lacks stability and security.

«If we help Ukraine defeat Russia, this will enable us to isolate Iran, and then North Korea, which will, subsequently, deter China. Because the Chinese will see that the West has political will, industrial potential and military capabilities», - Hodges states. The defeat of Russia also is the West’s only serious protection from isolationist Trump’s coming to power.And if Ukraine does lose, the danger of China coming to «scary decisions» will rise swiftly.

‍When Putin falls from the cliff

‍How soon the Russians reach the turning point of this war and for how long Putin will keep in power depends on the dictator’s closest associates. Because he only answers to them - the oligarchs and the closest Kremlin members, not the parliament, voters or journalists who ask uncomfortable questions on behalf of those voters, as it is in any normal country. So when these people understand that there is no longer a chance for Russia to win, they will «push Putin off of a cliff and dispose of him».

Yes, the Kremlin dictator has no serious reasons to believe he will lose yet. But the day he does will be the beginning of his end

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Translation: Anastasiya Kanarska

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